Under the environment of energy conservation and emission reduction, electrical energy substitution in agricultural production can effectively reduce carbon emissions and improve environmental quality. This paper proposes a carbon emission calculation model, combines historical data to calculate the total energy carbon emission of the city, and predicts the trend of energy carbon emission changes based on the Mann-Kendall trend analysis test. Improve the single-level gray correlation, propose multi-level gray correlation analysis method to comprehensively assess the environmental impact factors of rural electric energy substitution, and construct an impact assessment model of agricultural electric energy substitution. Utilizing energy and economic data from 2020- 2024 in Anhui Province, China, emission monitoring and trend forecasting are conducted, and the environmental impact of its agricultural electric energy substitution technology is assessed. Anhui Province’s future carbon emissions will continue to show an overall increase, but carbon emissions from mining (industry) will continue to decrease. In 2026, the rural electricity substitution in Anhui Province is predicted to be 64.72×108(kW·h), which will increase by 221% compared to 2022, and the rural electricity substitution shows a diversified development trend.
