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Analysis of the spatial and temporal impacts of urban expansion on land resource change: a study based on regression methods

By: Xiaoxiao Wang1, Zhenchen Lin1, Xuanyi Li1, Benzheng Zhang1
1College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Chongqing Metropolitan College of Science and Technology, Chongqing, 402167, China

Abstract

This paper takes the Pearl River Delta (PRD) urban agglomeration as an example, based on the land use data from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IGSR). With the help of remote sensing and GIS platform, Landsat image data are deciphered. The spatial and temporal land use change characteristics in the process of urban expansion are analyzed by kernel density analysis, superposition analysis, and regression analysis, and the contribution of each variable to the land resource change is quantitatively assessed. The results show that the expansion rate of the PRD urban agglomeration from 1988 to 2024 shows that Foshan expands from 53.03km² to 107.98km², Shenzhen expands by 6.03km² per year, and Guangzhou increases by a total of 217.64/km². The degrees of freedom of Foshan and Guangzhou continue to decrease, while those of Shenzhen increase. Slope (β=0.226) and built-up land (β=0.003) had the greatest influence on ecological land changes. Each indicator has a significant effect on the ecological land change, and the significance is less than 0.05.