Blue carbon economy, as an emerging form of marine economy, has significant ecological value by protecting and restoring marine ecosystems to improve the carbon sink function. Macao and Zhuhai are positioned as new growth poles on the west bank of the Pearl River Estuary in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Plan by virtue of their geographical advantages. Exploring the optimization path of creating a blue carbon industry cluster in the Macao-Zhuhai pole is of great significance to promote the synergistic development of the two regions and the high-quality development of the marine economy. Based on the system dynamics method, this study explores the optimization path of creating a blue carbon industry cluster in the MacauZhuhai Pole. By constructing a system dynamics model of the blue carbon industry cluster in the Macao-Zhuhai Pole, the interaction relationship between key factors such as government investment, technological innovation, the construction level of the Macao-Zhuhai Pole and blue carbon production was analyzed, and model validity tests and sensitivity analyses were carried out. The results show that: fiscal expenditure, raw material cost and fixed asset investment are more sensitive to the impact of blue carbon processing industry cluster development, and by 2030 under the high-speed development scenario, the size of blue carbon processing industry cluster in the AZZ Pole can reach 901.301 billion yuan, which is 48.3% higher than that of the base scenario; under the growth rate scenario of fixed asset investment, the size of cluster development can reach 680.122 billion yuan, which is 14.98% higher than that of the base scenario; labor cost is more important to the development of blue carbon processing industry than the base scenario. 14.98%; labor cost has a relatively small impact on the development of industrial clusters. Based on the simulation results, optimization paths such as low-carbon transformation of high-carbon industrial clusters, transformation of industrial parks to low-carbon industrial parks, development of modern service industrial parks, creation of strategic emerging industrial parks, and construction of low-carbon industrial chains are proposed. The study has an important reference value for promoting the healthy and sustainable development of blue carbon industrial clusters in the AZZ Pole, and promoting the high-quality development of regional economy and ecological environmental protection.
