Currently, the impact of agricultural carbon emissions on the environment is becoming more and more significant, and low-carbon agricultural transformation has become a key topic in the construction of ecological civilization. This study applies entropy weight method and gray comprehensive evaluation method to construct an assessment model, and analyzes the impact of the dual constraints of government regulation and agricultural insurance on low-carbon agricultural transformation based on the panel data of 20 counties in a city from 2015 to 2024. The results show that the gray correlation between economic level, arable land size, government regulation and agricultural carbon emission is 0.943, 0.906, 0.873 respectively, with high correlation. The two-way fixed effect model empirically shows that the impact coefficients of agricultural insurance and government regulation on agricultural carbon efficiency are 15.3% and 18.8%, respectively, and are significant at the 0.001 confidence level; under the double constraint, the impact coefficients are elevated to 29.1%.During the period of 2015-2024, the city’s agricultural carbon emission intensity decreases from 79.36 tons/million yuan to 36.32 tons/million yuan, which is a significant decrease. The study shows that the dual constraint mechanism of government regulation and agricultural insurance can effectively promote the low-carbon transformation of agriculture, in which agricultural insurance reduces carbon emissions through the expansion of the scale of operation of agricultural land, the restructuring of agricultural industry, and the improvement of agricultural business income; and government regulation prompts agribusinesses to strengthen their environmental responsibility through regulatory constraints and policy guidance.
