Economic cyclical fluctuation is an economic phenomenon that is bound to appear in the market economic environment, and it is an objective law that must be followed in the process of macroeconomic operation. The study selected China’s economic development from 2000 to 2023 as the research object, from an empirical point of view, the use of wavelet analysis to study the economic trend of per capita GDP in 30 provinces in China and the overall domestic economic cycle fluctuations. At the same time, the effectiveness of Var model in financial risk management is examined. The research data show that most provinces and cities have a total of three troughs between 2000 and 2023, but the overall trend is upward, in terms of the number of troughs, the provinces and cities in the country have at least 11 troughs, and the largest number of provinces and cities even have 15, and the economic cycle fluctuations between 2000 and 2005 are more stable, with a clear upward trend. The Var model performs well that has better management significance for financial risk.
