Ship manufacturing industry is facing serious challenges of cost control and budget management, and the traditional earned value analysis method is difficult to cope with the uncertainty in project schedule and quality evaluation. This study applies the fuzzy logic control technology to the traditional earned value method to construct a shipbuilding cost management and budget optimization model. By blurring the earned value index variables, introducing the triangular fuzzy function to deal with the progress data, and combining with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to determine the risk rate, the accurate estimation and dynamic control of shipbuilding cost is realized. The constructed model is validated using Monte Carlo simulation method, and the results show that: the mean present value of cost of Scenario B with fuzzy earned value model is 9,632,500 yuan, which is 29.3% lower than that of Scenario A without the model; the operation cost and maintenance cost of Scenario B account for 81.9% and 17.8%, respectively, which are better than that of Scenario A’s 76.5% and 23.5%. In 56KBC shipbuilding project practice, the fuzzy earned value model accurately identifies the change point where the cost performance level in the 10th month decreases from an average of 1.2 to 0.75, which provides a key basis for project management decisions. The application of the model significantly reduces the deviation of cost estimation in shipbuilding projects, and provides enterprises with targeted measures to regulate cost deviation from organizational, economic and technical aspects. The fuzzy earned value model effectively improves the accuracy and reliability of shipbuilding cost management, and provides a practical tool for shipbuilding enterprises to realize budget optimization and cost control.
