With the transformation, upgrading and continuous development of China’s economy, the competition among enterprises is becoming more and more intense, and the financial risks they face are also increasing. Therefore, in order to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of enterprises, it is particularly important to strengthen the prediction of financial risk. This paper takes listed transportation enterprises as research samples, selects 13 indicators from 4 aspects, and reduces the dimensionality of financial indicators through factor analysis, and finally extracts 11 principal components for model fitting. Then the combined model SMOTE-Light GBM for financial prediction of medium enterprises is proposed, and the seed of random numbers is selected as 1326, and the model’s accuracy, precision, recall, f1_score, ROC curve, and AUC evaluation indexes are all over 95%, and the classification prediction effect is excellent. Operating profit margin, total asset turnover, total asset growth rate, operating income growth rate, and accounts receivable turnover have significant effects on corporate financial forecasting.
