In recent years, technology transfer in China’s provinces and regions has shown an imbalanced situation, and technology transfer efficiency has become an important indicator for measuring regional innovation capacity. This study uses data envelopment analysis to construct a technology transfer efficiency evaluation system, measures and dynamically analyzes the technology transfer efficiency of 30 Chinese provinces and regions based on the BCC model and Malmquist index, and explores the influencing factors using RF regression and Tobit regression. The results show that: the average comprehensive efficiency of technology transfer in Chinese provinces and regions is 0.876, among which 12 provinces and regions’ comprehensive efficiency of technology transfer reaches DEA effective, accounting for 40%; 18 provinces and regions’ technical efficiency reaches DEA effective, accounting for 60%; and 12 provinces and regions’ scale efficiency reaches effective, accounting for 40%.In 2018-2024, China’s technology transfer’s Malmquist index is 0.96, showing a decreasing trend, and the decrease in the average efficiency of technology transfer is mainly constrained by the technical progress index (0.966). Regression analysis shows that new product sales revenue is the most significant factor affecting the efficiency of technology transfer. The study proposes that for provinces and regions with different efficiency levels, collaborative innovation development strategies should be adopted to optimize the industrial structure, rationally allocate R&D resources, and establish a sound technology transfer service system, so as to enhance the regional technology transfer efficiency and innovation capacity.
