Under the background of global energy change, shale natural gas is gradually becoming a key element to promote the improvement of the energy structure due to its abundant reserves and clean and low-emission qualities. This study utilizes the LEAP energy system analysis model to analyze the effectiveness of shale gas extraction in reducing carbon emissions. By creating three scenarios: baseline, energy-saving, and low-carbon, the study explores the changing patterns of carbon emissions in the shale natural gas industry under different technological routes and policy combinations. The study concludes that in the low-carbon development path, the carbon emissions of the shale gas industry will reach the peak turning point of 31.8 million tons in 2030, and then show a steady decline, and it is estimated that the cumulative emission reduction will reach 254.7 million tons in 2050, which will account for 2.4% of the total national carbon emissions. Among the many influencing factors, technological advancement contributes up to 58.3% to carbon emission reduction, with the control of methane leakage, electrification of the development process, and the popularization of carbon capture technology constituting the three key pillars to enhance emission reduction. Shale natural gas extraction not only has excellent performance in terms of economic benefits, but also shows significant positive value in terms of ecological environment protection and social development, especially in the low-carbon context to achieve the optimization of benefits. By strengthening the monitoring system of methane leakage, accelerating the electrification of the development process, promoting the commercial application of carbon capture technology, improving the carbon price formation mechanism, and increasing the investment in research and development of emission reduction technology, we can promote the development of shale gas industry in the direction of lower carbon and environmental protection, and contribute to China’s dual-carbon strategic goal.
